The Public Charging Infrastructure that is required for each scenario has been modelled. In order to do this the current charging technology, and public and domestic infrastructure was examined and several factor to do with how the future of charging could progress were considered.
Current Charging Infrastructure
Technology Speed
Currently there are three categories of charging speed; Slow, Fast and Rapid. The different specifications of each is outlined in the table below.
Currently there are three categories of charging speed; Slow, Fast and Rapid. The different specifications of each is outlined in the table below.
Public
In 2016* the number of charging points in the UK was 5704 (1). The points are operated by networks through the UK. Customers can subscribe to the networks for benefits and cheaper rates. Some examples of these networks in the UK are POLAR, Charge your Car and Instavolt. Public charging tends to be fast or rapid charging with a variety of connectors which are either tethered or untethered. This allows people to either use the connector provided or bring their own. Often free public charging is available in social spaces such as shopping centres.
*Note 2016 values are used to match with 2016 vehicle statistics.
In 2016* the number of charging points in the UK was 5704 (1). The points are operated by networks through the UK. Customers can subscribe to the networks for benefits and cheaper rates. Some examples of these networks in the UK are POLAR, Charge your Car and Instavolt. Public charging tends to be fast or rapid charging with a variety of connectors which are either tethered or untethered. This allows people to either use the connector provided or bring their own. Often free public charging is available in social spaces such as shopping centres.
*Note 2016 values are used to match with 2016 vehicle statistics.
Domestic
Domestic charging is currently the most popular type of Electric Vehicle charging. The charging speeds are typically slow of fast.
Domestic charging is currently the most popular type of Electric Vehicle charging. The charging speeds are typically slow of fast.
Future of Charging
Domestic Charging
Domestic charging will be more attractive as an EV customer than public charging due to many factors such as cost and convenience. Therefore if domestic charging is an option, it will most likely be the charging preference of that owner. The question of whether domestic charging is possible is an interesting and complex issue.
Domestic charging requires a parking spot for each EV with a charging point installed. This is the main issue facing domestic charging as if a place to park the car for the duration of the charge (possibly overnight) is not available, then a charging point cannot be installed. Residences such as high rise flats, tenement blocks, old apartment buildings and even some front door houses often do not have parking spots. In fact almost 50% (2) of homes in the UK do not have a place to park their car at night. Therefore this equates to half the population not having the ability to domestically charge.
This would most likely deter potential EV buyer from purchasing an electric vehicle, as they would have to rely purely on public charging. Therefore it is likely that the first 50% of the population buying EV will be primarily domestically charging, and therefore not placing a heavy burden on public chargers. However following this, the customers who buy Electric Vehicles would solely rely on public chargers. It is at this stage that the impact on public charging infrastructure is crucially important.
Domestic charging requires a parking spot for each EV with a charging point installed. This is the main issue facing domestic charging as if a place to park the car for the duration of the charge (possibly overnight) is not available, then a charging point cannot be installed. Residences such as high rise flats, tenement blocks, old apartment buildings and even some front door houses often do not have parking spots. In fact almost 50% (2) of homes in the UK do not have a place to park their car at night. Therefore this equates to half the population not having the ability to domestically charge.
This would most likely deter potential EV buyer from purchasing an electric vehicle, as they would have to rely purely on public charging. Therefore it is likely that the first 50% of the population buying EV will be primarily domestically charging, and therefore not placing a heavy burden on public chargers. However following this, the customers who buy Electric Vehicles would solely rely on public chargers. It is at this stage that the impact on public charging infrastructure is crucially important.
Public Charging
As an increase in Public Charging Infrastructure is required regardless of which scenario is used, it is important to consider who will pay for and install the points. It is most likely that it will be a privatised business and so there are some important factors to acknowledge. Mainly if the points are a privatised business, there will a profit that must be made from them. This imposes a limit on the number of charging points that would be installed. If there were to be one charging point to each EV then each point would be used less than once per day. This means that there must be a higher demand on the point and so more Electric Vehicles per each charging points is required.
Modelling Approach
Domestic
It is assumed as domestic charging is most likely to occur at night, for each EV which is able to domestically charge, there will be one domestic charging point. Therefore the number of domestic charging points in 2050 will be half the number of Electric Vehicles. This approach applies across all scenarios .
Public
For the different EV Penetration Rates, different modelling approaches were taken. For the business as usual and the intermediate scenario, the current ratio of charging points to EV is maintained. This assumes that charging behaviour is maintained as it is today. As the Market Ratio for these scenarios does not exceed 50%, the assumption is that by 2050 in these scenarios, the majority of EV owners will domestically charge.
However for the upper penetration rates, the market ratio exceeds 50% in 2040. Therefore following this, the public charging infrastructure will need to significantly increase to support users who rely solely on Public charging. In order to account for this increased demand a new ratio of charging points to EV was applied.
In order to determine the new ratio, the use of the charging point was considered. As charging points are likely to be a private business, a profit should be made from them. Therefore the charging point should be in high demand. In order to ensure this, a ratio of one charging point per four EV was applied. This ratio not only accounts for customers solely charging publicly, but also mainly domestic chargers who require top-up charges. With current charging speed this places a high daily usage on the charging point. This of course does not account for misuse of the charging point, which is discussed in detail BELOW.
These modelling approaches were applied the the EV projection scenarios to obtain the number of public charging points required in each scenario.
*Note, hybrids are not factored into this model as the focus is purely EV. For the business as usual EV PR projections, as the EV to charging point ratio is maintained along with the ratio of hybrids to EV, the infrastructure should cover plug-in hybrids assuming the ratio of plug-in hybrids to non plug-in hybrids doesn't drastically change,
For the intermediate EV PR projections the number of hybrids increases substantially , this charging infrastructure is a minimum and significantly more would be required to account for plug-in hybrids.
However for the upper penetration rates, the market ratio exceeds 50% in 2040. Therefore following this, the public charging infrastructure will need to significantly increase to support users who rely solely on Public charging. In order to account for this increased demand a new ratio of charging points to EV was applied.
In order to determine the new ratio, the use of the charging point was considered. As charging points are likely to be a private business, a profit should be made from them. Therefore the charging point should be in high demand. In order to ensure this, a ratio of one charging point per four EV was applied. This ratio not only accounts for customers solely charging publicly, but also mainly domestic chargers who require top-up charges. With current charging speed this places a high daily usage on the charging point. This of course does not account for misuse of the charging point, which is discussed in detail BELOW.
These modelling approaches were applied the the EV projection scenarios to obtain the number of public charging points required in each scenario.
*Note, hybrids are not factored into this model as the focus is purely EV. For the business as usual EV PR projections, as the EV to charging point ratio is maintained along with the ratio of hybrids to EV, the infrastructure should cover plug-in hybrids assuming the ratio of plug-in hybrids to non plug-in hybrids doesn't drastically change,
For the intermediate EV PR projections the number of hybrids increases substantially , this charging infrastructure is a minimum and significantly more would be required to account for plug-in hybrids.
Results
In this section the results for the Business as Usual, Conservative and Aggressive Scenarios are given and discussed. For the results of the other six scenarios and for more information about each scenario, please visit of results table.
Business as Usual Scenario
The number of public charging points required in 2050 through the Business as Usual scenario is
241,165
Although this number is relatively low compared to the requirements for the other scenarios, compared to the number in 2016, a significant increase in infrastructure necessary.
241,165
Although this number is relatively low compared to the requirements for the other scenarios, compared to the number in 2016, a significant increase in infrastructure necessary.
Conservative Scenario
The number of public charging points required in 2050 through the Conservative scenario is
741,236
Again this is a significant increase compared to the infrastructure in 2016. However it is very important to acknowledge that the model does not account for plug-in hybrids as the vehicle statistics does not break down the hybrids into different types. Therefore the number produced for the Conservative scenario is a bare minimum required with only EV, it is likely that the infrastructure would have to be much more to account for plug in hybrids.
741,236
Again this is a significant increase compared to the infrastructure in 2016. However it is very important to acknowledge that the model does not account for plug-in hybrids as the vehicle statistics does not break down the hybrids into different types. Therefore the number produced for the Conservative scenario is a bare minimum required with only EV, it is likely that the infrastructure would have to be much more to account for plug in hybrids.
Aggressive Scenario
The number of public charging points required in 2050 through the Aggressive scenario is
8,649,409
In order to install this magnitude of charging infrastructure there would be significant impacts and several factors should be considered (see below). For example the parking space required, based on an average sized space in the UK, is over 100km squared. The graph below shows how Public Charging Infrastructure will progress for the Aggressive scenario from 2015-2050.
8,649,409
In order to install this magnitude of charging infrastructure there would be significant impacts and several factors should be considered (see below). For example the parking space required, based on an average sized space in the UK, is over 100km squared. The graph below shows how Public Charging Infrastructure will progress for the Aggressive scenario from 2015-2050.
Considerations
An increase in Public Charging Infrastructure will have significant impacts and so many different factors should be considered.
Cost
Increasing the quantity of charging points requires investment for several reasons:
- Cost of the charging point itself and installation
- Cost of Cabling (new and higher capacity cables)
With private industry, a profit must be made for the investor. As electricity cannot be sold for a higher price than it is bought, the profit will come from the cost of the infrastructure itself. Therefore, the customer will pay a price which will take into account several things:
- Electricity
- Transportation of electricity from source and infrastructure this requires (this applies only if the electricity is not taken directly from the grid).
- Charging infrastructure
- Profit
The challenge of cost of charging point infrastructure is therefore not very urgent as the emergence of this lucrative new sector suggests that businesses will be eager to install points as a profit can be made.
Although the cost of the infrastructure is accounted for, the requirement for profit means that the cost to publically charge will be higher than domestic charging.
Management of Public points
The way the progression of public charging points has been modelling creates a high demand for the points. Along with faster charging speeds, this creates a challenge. The points would have to be managed in some way to ensure that once a car was charged, it was moved to allow another customer to use the point. This management would perhaps come from the investors/owners of the point as they would want more customers to use the point so more profit is made, and the charging point is not idle when it could be being used.
Charging Speed
As mentioned above the charging speed would need to be much faster. This is technology which is not yet available. Upwards of 150kW chargers would be required meaning both the technology of the charging points and the batteries in the EV itself will have to progress.
With higher speeds, the cabling infrastructure will require a higher capacity, especially if several points are found in each location. This would require grid improvements and upgrades.
Location- Infrastructure installation
The quantity of charging points is not the only thing which must be considered, but also the various locations that charging points could be installed and the challenges that come with this.
Charging points in the streets such as in city centres or near homes would create not only inconvenience for the installation of the points but also the cables. Also, it would have to be decided where to install points. This is important as currently city councils control parking spaces and make a profit from them. Therefore, for private companies to install points and then make a profit, they would have to partner with councils or perhaps pay a fee to use the space.
At locations such as shopping centres, supermarkets or social area, the owners of the car parks could install their own points or again partner with companies. The main issue with this is the management system mentioned above as people may spend more time in these social areas than it takes to charge the car.
Charging points which operate in the same way that fuelling station do today must be considered. A major consideration for these types of points is the time it would take to charge. If the points take up to 30minutes to charge a vehicle then it is unlikely that most people would use points like this unless there was a social or useful thing to do nearby like above. Therefore, these points would most likely be used not to fully charge a car but to charge enough to get to a certain place, such as to charge in an emergency until the car can domestically charge. These points would most likely need significant cabling upgrades to manage the capacity for approximately 10 >150kW chargers.
These charging stations with several points would probably be more common on motorways where people may have to recharge during long journeys. the land required would already be available at service stations, especially with replacement of fuelling station, and so only the infrastructure upgrades would be required.
Space for Parking
For the Public Charging Infrastructure, each point will require an accompanying space for the car to park whilst charging. As outlined in the aggressive scenario results, this space can be substantial and will require extensive planning for the companies operating the points as well as councils.
In the next section we will discuss the Economic Implications of EV.
Increasing the quantity of charging points requires investment for several reasons:
- Cost of the charging point itself and installation
- Cost of Cabling (new and higher capacity cables)
With private industry, a profit must be made for the investor. As electricity cannot be sold for a higher price than it is bought, the profit will come from the cost of the infrastructure itself. Therefore, the customer will pay a price which will take into account several things:
- Electricity
- Transportation of electricity from source and infrastructure this requires (this applies only if the electricity is not taken directly from the grid).
- Charging infrastructure
- Profit
The challenge of cost of charging point infrastructure is therefore not very urgent as the emergence of this lucrative new sector suggests that businesses will be eager to install points as a profit can be made.
Although the cost of the infrastructure is accounted for, the requirement for profit means that the cost to publically charge will be higher than domestic charging.
Management of Public points
The way the progression of public charging points has been modelling creates a high demand for the points. Along with faster charging speeds, this creates a challenge. The points would have to be managed in some way to ensure that once a car was charged, it was moved to allow another customer to use the point. This management would perhaps come from the investors/owners of the point as they would want more customers to use the point so more profit is made, and the charging point is not idle when it could be being used.
Charging Speed
As mentioned above the charging speed would need to be much faster. This is technology which is not yet available. Upwards of 150kW chargers would be required meaning both the technology of the charging points and the batteries in the EV itself will have to progress.
With higher speeds, the cabling infrastructure will require a higher capacity, especially if several points are found in each location. This would require grid improvements and upgrades.
Location- Infrastructure installation
The quantity of charging points is not the only thing which must be considered, but also the various locations that charging points could be installed and the challenges that come with this.
Charging points in the streets such as in city centres or near homes would create not only inconvenience for the installation of the points but also the cables. Also, it would have to be decided where to install points. This is important as currently city councils control parking spaces and make a profit from them. Therefore, for private companies to install points and then make a profit, they would have to partner with councils or perhaps pay a fee to use the space.
At locations such as shopping centres, supermarkets or social area, the owners of the car parks could install their own points or again partner with companies. The main issue with this is the management system mentioned above as people may spend more time in these social areas than it takes to charge the car.
Charging points which operate in the same way that fuelling station do today must be considered. A major consideration for these types of points is the time it would take to charge. If the points take up to 30minutes to charge a vehicle then it is unlikely that most people would use points like this unless there was a social or useful thing to do nearby like above. Therefore, these points would most likely be used not to fully charge a car but to charge enough to get to a certain place, such as to charge in an emergency until the car can domestically charge. These points would most likely need significant cabling upgrades to manage the capacity for approximately 10 >150kW chargers.
These charging stations with several points would probably be more common on motorways where people may have to recharge during long journeys. the land required would already be available at service stations, especially with replacement of fuelling station, and so only the infrastructure upgrades would be required.
Space for Parking
For the Public Charging Infrastructure, each point will require an accompanying space for the car to park whilst charging. As outlined in the aggressive scenario results, this space can be substantial and will require extensive planning for the companies operating the points as well as councils.
In the next section we will discuss the Economic Implications of EV.
