AIM

​"To investigate how the UK can integrate the most low-carbon energy systems into the electricity grid by 2050."

Why 2050?

The EU 2050 energy goal (European Commission, 2011) aims to reduce Greenhouse Gas emissions by 80-95% when compared to 1990 emission levels.  This drastic reduction, to which U.K. has committed, requires the energy market to move towards a low-carbon energy generation economy, while assuring a secure and affordable power delivery. ​

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The goal's achievement strongly relies on the action taken today: a progression of greener policies implementation, social promotion of renewable energies and investments on low carbon technology developments.  For this to happen, an energy transition framework is required to be able to plan in advance, program and push forward  technology developments needed to make the 2050  low carbon scenario not only a challenge but a reality. 
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The present project shall explore how the UK, aligning with EU 2050 Energy Roadmap, could integrate the most low carbon technology into the complex energy landscape by the target date of 2050. The project shall closely study different alternative future scenarios as a key step to be able to plan the transition today.

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OBJECTIVES

Three distinct objectives were defined which helped break the project down into logical steps, each with clear outputs.

Click the image to find out how we estimated future demand

1. Estimate demand in 2050

​The level of electrical demand in 2050 will show a very different story to what it is today. The first objective was to estimate a value based on:

• Increased population
• Demand management
• Electrification of transport and heating

2. Model low-carbon supply mixes

​With a value for future demand in mind, the second objective was to model a range of potential low carbon supply solutions which could meet this.
The main goal of course is low CO2 emissions, but supply and demand matching is equally important in order to balance the grid to avoid collapse. So a range of outputs will be assessed within the portfolio of scenarios.

Click the image to find out more about our modelling methodology

Click the image to go to our feasibility assessment page

​3. Feasibility assessment

​The third and final objective was to compare the scenarios against one another in terms of:

• Technology
• Cost
• Environment

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SCOPE

Due to the high level nature of the project, it is important to draw boundaries and clearly state the scope. Equally important is to define what is excluded from scope. 

In Scope

• Proven technologies:

Any technologies which have a proven track record will be considered as having the capabilities to contribute large capacities of power to the supply mix in 2050. The following will be assessed as part of the mix: onshore and offshore wind, solar PV, tidal barrage, hydro power, nuclear, plus all of the conventional power supplies.
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• ​Proven demand reduction incentives/policies:

​​Where there is evidence and tangible results showing that policies have been successfully implemented to encourage the reduction in energy usage (in the domestic, industry, commercial or other sectors), then these will be considered as an option for this project. 

Out of Scope

• Transmission Restrictions:

​We started trying to consider the issues regarding regional power generation and distribution, however it quickly became apparent that data for this purpose was extremely limited and not necessarily accurate. Therefore we removed this from scope and continued the study considering the UK as one single unit. We assume that National Grid would have to make the necessary upgrades to transmission lines where required.
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• ​Energy not associated with the grid itself:

We are only interested in in electricity generation which is transmitted around the grid; fossil fueled transport (cars, trucks, aeroplanes, ships etc.) or heating is out of the scope of this project.

• ​​Concept technologies or designs in the early stages of testing:

​​Anything without a solid track record to prove it's robustness and confirm a definite future as a mainstream supplier of power in the future has been left out to ensure as realistic a representation of 2050 as possible at this time. Such technologies include: wave power, tidal stream and storage such as hydrogen, and compressed air energy storage. This also includes 'smart grid' systems.

• ​Biomass

​Due to the limited land mass in the UK for growing biomass, we have scoped this technology out. We do not consider it to be a 'low carbon' option if the fuel is all imported, potentially from unsustainable sources.