The approach to modelling future scenarios was to create a portfolio of energy supply mix options. To decide on the installed capacities of each technology which could be possible by 2050, we used the ‘HM Government 2050 Pathways Analysis’ report (DECC, 2010) which defines 4 levels of capacity per technology.

This document defines the levels as follows (DECC 2010, p10):

• Level 1: assumes little or no attempt to decarbonise or change or only short run efforts; and that unproven low carbon technologies are not developed or deployed.
• Level 2: describes what might be achieved by applying a level of effort that is likely to be viewed as ambitious but reasonable by most or all experts. For some sectors this would be similar to the build rate expected with the successful implementation of the programmes or projects currently in progress.
• Level 3: describes what might be achieved by applying a very ambitious level of effort that is unlikely to happen without significant change from the current system; it assumes significant technological breakthroughs.
• Level 4: describes a level of change that could be achieved with effort at the extreme upper end of what is thought to be physically plausible by the most optimistic observer. This level pushes towards the physical or technical limits of what can be achieved."

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Within this document, each technology is given a range of capacity values which fit with these levels, for example as below:

Figure 1: Trajectories for electricity generation from onshore wind (DECC, 2010)

A mix of levels per technology was used to form a variety of scenarios. These ranged from maximising all renewable energy systems and eliminating fossil fuels, to maximising only ocean based renewable energy systems, and also utilising only nuclear power along with storage.

We understand the importance of increased levels of storage in a system with high penetrations of renewable energy. Having read an interesting dissertation from a previous student of this course (Hoy, 2015), we decided to incorporate his suggestion of increased pumped hydro storage.

​To see the full range of scenarios created, click the button below.

2050 scenarios

References:
DECC 2010, HM Government, 2050 Pathways Analysis, 
Hoy 2015, The Role of Additional Pumped Hydro Storage in a Low Carbon UK Grid,