As the city continues to urbanise, with an increasing proportion of the rural population of the district migrating into the city; this is projected to, alongside the natural birth rate, increase the city’s population by 120% to 325,500 by 2050 (assuming a steady 2.5% population growth rate). This is equivalent to a city the size of Dundee, doubling in size in 30 years. Fig. 1 displays this increase.
This increasing population and need for energy will increase the total city electricity demand. This demand increase (Fig. 2) has been projected to rise 300% from the current 70.4 GWh/yr to 329.6 GWh/yr by 2050, assuming changing total-split proportions of the domestic stock house ratings. For example, the lowest energy intensive house will shift from comprising 15% of total domestic stock currently, to just 5% in 2050; and the likes of the high energy intensive shifting from 25% to 35% of total in the same period. This increased energy demand will undoubtedly raise the strain on the already constrained local grid network, likely exacerbating the supply problems currently faced.
Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering
James Weir Building, Level 8
University of Strathclyde
5 Montrose Street
Glasgow
G1 1XJ
Scotland, UK
+44 (0) 141 548 4851
mae@strath.ac.uk