Worst Case Scenario

What is a "Worst-Case Scenario"?

A worst case scenario is basically a set of conditions that are statistically-probable of occurring which, can then be used to calculate some unknown. In our case we wanted to know how much storage would be required under a condition of little or no wind.

Why do we need a worst-case scenario?

For the purposes of this project we needed to calculate how much storage capacity (energy capacity and peak power capacity) would be required; based on the fact that there are high levels of wind penetration, and on the knowledge that the wind is intermittent--often noexistant for days, and that the power industry standards require--security of supply.

Our worst-case scenario criteria:

The worst case scenario for the purposes of this project is essentially a time period of seven days in the Winter, during which there is no wind available to generate electricity.

The Winter season was chosen because this is when power and energy demand are greatest. The seven day period was chosen based on our analysis of various wind data sets and on consultation with the wind industry. It should be stressed that a period of seven days without wind anywhere in Scotland is highly unlikely but the storage requirements for this scenario may be similar to several weeks of relatively calm conditions. Therefore the 'no wind days' period is intended to be representative of a variety of poor wind conditions.