The Impact of Sustainable Communities on the Low Voltage Distribution Network

Scenarios

 

In order to undertake this project and to predict what the future might look like, the project needed to be a scenario based project. For the purposes of this project, the scenarios had to look at increasing the rate of electrical usage over time, and so the scenarios were split up into a base case and three other scenarios. The estate definition within the WRISC tool allowed the user to compare different housing estate compositions however for the purposes of this analysis an estate of 200 homes was chosen.

 

The three scenarios of progressive levels of electrification were split up as follows:

 

In order to take account of the time dimension, deployment levels had been included to predict a gradual increase of electrification using increasing percentage and technology integration. All details of the scenarios are shown in the table below.

 

Scenario

Description

Estate Composition

0

Gas Fired Heating With A Conventional House

200 Houses

1a

30% Deployment Of HP

200 Houses

1b

60% Deployment Of HP

200 Houses

1c

Full Deployment Of HP

200 Houses

2a

30% Deployment Of Total Electrification In Smart Grid Scenario

200 Houses

2b

60% Deployment Of Total Electrification In Smart Grid Scenario

200 Houses

2c

Full Deployment Of Total Electrification In Smart Grid Scenario

200 Houses

2c + 3a

Full Deployment Of Total Electrification In Smart Grid Scenario + 30% Deployment Of EV’s At On Peak Fast Charge

200 Houses + 60 EVs

2c + 3b

Full Deployment Of Total Electrification In Smart Grid Scenario + 60% Deployment Of EV’s At On Peak Fast Charge

200 Houses + 120 EVs

2c + 3c

Full Deployment Of Total Electrification In Smart Grid Scenario + Full Deployment Of EV’s At On Peak Fast Charge

200 Houses + 200 EVs

Table 1: Scenarios

  

From the dynamic simulation carried out for the housing model and the EV charging load profiles, which were generated analytically, the scenarios were collated in order to produce the overall substation load profiles. The latter are shown below for each scenario.

 

 

 

Scenario 0 - Base Case

 

 

 

 

Figure 1- Small Power & Lighting Scenario 0

 

 

 

 

Figure 2- Other Electrical Loads Scenario 0

 

 

As expected the small power and lighting loads (figure1) were presented in this scenario to be the most significant compared to the other electrical loads (figure 2) which were covered by the gas fired system. The small power and lighting loads remained the same and were expected to remain constant throughout the scenario process and therefore were only showed in figure 1.

 

Scenario 1a - Heat Pump 30% deployment

 

 

 

Figure 3- Other Electrical Loads Scenario 1a

 

 

As the move towards the deployment of heat pumps started, there was a slight rise in electrical demand for the heat pump load (figure 3). This scenario was based on replacing gas fired systems with heat pump systems.

 

Scenario 1b - Heat Pump 60% deployment

 

 

 

Figure 4- Other Electrical Loads Scenario 1b

 

 

Further deployment to 60% resulted in a higher heat pump load (figure 4).

 

 

Scenario 1c - Heat Pump 100% deployment

 

 

Figure 5- Other Electrical Loads Scenario 1c

 

 

With 100% deployment of heat pumps within a 200 home estate, the heat pump load was in that case at its highest (figure 5).

 

 

Scenario 2a - Electrification 30% deployment

 

 

 

Figure 6-Other Electrical Loads Scenario 2a

 

 

As the shift in this event started by replacing gas fired heating with electric heating the load at 30% deployment was similar to the load at 100% Heat Pump deployment and this was expected due to the Seasonal Coefficient of Performance rated at 3 (figure 6).

 

 

Scenario 2b - Electrification 60% deployment

 

 

Figure 7- Other Electrical Loads Scenario 2b

 

 

As the move towards 60% deployment the electrification rised increased, the peak power demand also increased as expected (figure 7).

 

 

Scenario 2c - Electrification 100% deployment

 

 

 

Figure 8- Other Electrical Load Scenario 2c

 

 

And at 100% deployment the electrification load was at its maximum (figure 8).

 

 

Scenario 3a + 2c - EV 30% deployment

 

 

 

Figure 9- Other Electrical Loads Scenario 3a + 2c

 

Scenario 3a looked into the integration of 30% deployment of EV's in addition to scenario 2c with the full integration of electrification of heating (figure 9).

 

 

Scenario 3b + 2c - EV 60% deployment

 

 

 

 

Figure 10- Other Electrical Loads Scenario 3b + 2c

 

 

As the scenario moved towards 60% deployment, the peak showed a significant rise in the morning as this was due to the fast charge on peak load profile that occurred and this was assumed to be the worst case for the impact on the grid (figure 10).

 

 

 

Scenario 3c + 2c - EV 100% deployment

 

 

 

Figure 11- Other Electrical Loads Scenario 3c + 2c

 

 

Finally as the move towards the deployment of EV's was at 100 percent (1 vehicle per home) the peak in the morning was then at its greatest (figure 11). This was a good representation of progressive levels of electrification and was taken forward and used in the ADMD analysis section.