In order to undertake this project and to predict what the future might look like, the project needed to be a scenario based project. For the purposes of this project, the scenarios had to look at increasing the rate of electrical usage over time, and so the scenarios were split up into a base case and three other scenarios. The estate definition within the WRISC tool allowed the user to compare different housing estate compositions however for the purposes of this analysis an estate of 200 homes was chosen.
The three scenarios of progressive levels of electrification were split up as follows:
In order to take account of the time dimension, deployment levels had been included to predict a gradual increase of electrification using increasing percentage and technology integration. All details of the scenarios are shown in the table below.
Scenario |
Description |
Estate Composition |
0 |
Gas Fired Heating With A Conventional House |
200 Houses |
1a |
30% Deployment Of HP |
200 Houses |
1b |
60% Deployment Of HP |
200 Houses |
1c |
Full Deployment Of HP |
200 Houses |
2a |
30% Deployment Of Total Electrification In Smart Grid Scenario |
200 Houses |
2b |
60% Deployment Of Total Electrification In Smart Grid Scenario |
200 Houses |
2c |
Full Deployment Of Total Electrification In Smart Grid Scenario |
200 Houses |
2c + 3a |
Full Deployment Of Total Electrification In Smart Grid Scenario + 30% Deployment Of EV’s At On Peak Fast Charge |
200 Houses + 60 EVs |
2c + 3b |
Full Deployment Of Total Electrification In Smart Grid Scenario + 60% Deployment Of EV’s At On Peak Fast Charge |
200 Houses + 120 EVs |
2c + 3c |
Full Deployment Of Total Electrification In Smart Grid Scenario + Full Deployment Of EV’s At On Peak Fast Charge |
200 Houses + 200 EVs |
Table 1: Scenarios
From the dynamic simulation carried out for the housing model and the EV charging load profiles, which were generated analytically, the scenarios were collated in order to produce the overall substation load profiles. The latter are shown below for each scenario.
Figure 1- Small Power & Lighting Scenario 0
Figure 2- Other Electrical Loads Scenario 0
As expected the small power and lighting loads (figure1) were presented in this scenario to be the most significant compared to the other electrical loads (figure 2) which were covered by the gas fired system. The small power and lighting loads remained the same and were expected to remain constant throughout the scenario process and therefore were only showed in figure 1.
Figure 3- Other Electrical Loads Scenario 1a
As the move towards the deployment of heat pumps started, there was a slight rise in electrical demand for the heat pump load (figure 3). This scenario was based on replacing gas fired systems with heat pump systems.
Figure 4- Other Electrical Loads Scenario 1b
Further deployment to 60% resulted in a higher heat pump load (figure 4).
Figure 5- Other Electrical Loads Scenario 1c
With 100% deployment of heat pumps within a 200 home estate, the heat pump load was in that case at its highest (figure 5).
Figure 6-Other Electrical Loads Scenario 2a
As the shift in this event started by replacing gas fired heating with electric heating the load at 30% deployment was similar to the load at 100% Heat Pump deployment and this was expected due to the Seasonal Coefficient of Performance rated at 3 (figure 6).
Figure 7- Other Electrical Loads Scenario 2b
As the move towards 60% deployment the electrification rised increased, the peak power demand also increased as expected (figure 7).
Figure 8- Other Electrical Load Scenario 2c
And at 100% deployment the electrification load was at its maximum (figure 8).
Figure 9- Other Electrical Loads Scenario 3a + 2c
Scenario 3a looked into the integration of 30% deployment of EV's in addition to scenario 2c with the full integration of electrification of heating (figure 9).
Figure 10- Other Electrical Loads Scenario 3b + 2c
As the scenario moved towards 60% deployment, the peak showed a significant rise in the morning as this was due to the fast charge on peak load profile that occurred and this was assumed to be the worst case for the impact on the grid (figure 10).
Figure 11- Other Electrical Loads Scenario 3c + 2c
Finally as the move towards the deployment of EV's was at 100 percent (1 vehicle per home) the peak in the morning was then at its greatest (figure 11). This was a good representation of progressive levels of electrification and was taken forward and used in the ADMD analysis section.