UNCERTAINTY IN WIND ENERGY YIELD PREDICTIONS
(M Sc. Group Project with Sgurr Energy)
 

 

The Real Wind Farm Case Study 

The problem

    The wind farm is located in the northern part of UK. It has 15 wind turbines, each rating 850kW. Cut-in, cut-out and rated speed of turbine is 4m/s, 25m/s and 16m/s respectively. Its expected energy out put in 2007 was below designed value. During the winter “January, February and March” 2007 several turbines’ output was dramatically low. It is also observed that it happened, when turbines were operating at high wind speed. The economical loss was approximately £100.000. This energy and economical loss reached a peak in March 2007.

    The energy plot (Power-time plot) below shows the turbine X performance, during 01/03/07 to 07/03/07. The real performance of the wind turbine is represented in blue and power expected is red. The power expected is related with turbine X. The losses are represented in yellow colour. Losses are the difference between the power output and the expected power.

 

    In this plot, it is possible to see that the difference between expected and output power reaches a maximum value of 500 kW. The average energy loss is around 20% and 40% from the rated figure at high wind speed.

    To understand these energy gaps, it is necessary to follow the wind speed data sheet, look at the different winds speed and also the alarm codes. To understand unexpected performance, it is necessary to look into climate conditions, such as ice in the blades, jamming of anemometer, or any other problem during the winter time. Hence it is important to understand the extreme temperatures and also high temperatures during this period.

    The following plot below shows the power performance of the turbine X. The trend is based on the power output and the wind speed. In this graph is possible to see that power loss occurs when the wind speed above 10 m/s.

Complete report on case study can be downloaded from here.