This project has
been developed in the
framework of the MSc in Energy Systems and the Environment under the
Sustainable Engineering program in the University of Strathclyde,
Glasgow.
The aim of the project is to study the
variation in correlation parameters for the Measure-Correlate-Predict
(MCP)
method between the wind speed data of pseudo wind farm site and
meteorological
site. We are also exploring behaviour of power curve for real wind farm
in UK.
We present our work in the form of website and presentation.
Presently wind
power, which grew by 29
percent worldwide in 2008 to reach an estimated generation of 260 TWh
per
annum, has 1.5%
contribution in global electricity consumption. This technology has
edge over
other conventional power generation methods as fuel for wind turbine is
free of
cost and inexhaustible. Wind speed prediction is not only useful for
wind farm
but for military and civilian air traffic control, ship navigation
purpose
also. It has significant impact on the energy yield from typical wind
farm. It
is of prime importance to wind farm operators to have confidence on
long term
wind speed prediction and hence in expected energy yield from a wind
farm. Most
commonly used techniques for estimating the long-term wind resource at
a
potential wind farm site are the Wind Atlas methodology and the
Measure-Correlate-Predict (MCP) methodology.
In the project,
we will concentrate on MCP methodology
as proposed by Derrick (1992). He suggests that to predict the wind
speed of
proposed wind
farm, one should have one concurrent year wind data for both proposed
wind farm
and nearest meteorological site along with 10 years of historical wind
data
from the same meteorological station. Derrick's method is based linear
regression algorithm. Currently some other algorithms are also
available
such as matrix method, vector regression method, a model based on the
ratio of
the standard deviations of the two data sets etc.
Nature of wind is
typically stochastic.
So prediction of wind speed for any site has uncertainty and hence in
energy
yield also. One can refer our presentation for main sources of
uncertainty
associated with wind energy yield prediction. We found it is
interesting to
research in the variation in correlation parameters with time. We
limited our
work on MCP method to study the variation of correlation parameters
affecting
energy yield. Key findings of the project can be found here.
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