Currently oil is the dominant fuel within the transport industry (see graph below) with dependency running at almost 100%. It is the fossil fuel with the lowest global reserves to production ratio and for the UK it is expected that it will become a net importer of oil over the next one or two decades ref12.

As EU oil reserves gradually depleate it is expected that over the next 30 years EU dependence on external energy resources will rise from 50 percent to 70 percent ref13.
As imports are relied upon more heavily there remains a number of concerns:

An oil well burns outside of Kuwait city

• The possibility that OPEC could become an effective cartel once again exerting a huge political and monetary influence on worldwide oil consumers.
• The increased risks that political or military disturbances elsewhere in the world would become critical for energy users in the UK and EU

This secont point is of incresing importance given that five of the six countries with the world’s largest proven oil reserves are located in the Middle East region where political stability is far from guarenteed.

It is important to note that the risks would be offset by the existence of large oil reserves, such as in Central America and Canada, which are close to becoming economic to exploit. However, why wait for these scenarios to occur when a proliferation in the diversity of fuels we use for road transport would ensure a more secure energy supply. By substituting at least some fossil fuels for bio fuels we would be extending the life of what domestic reserves remain and simultaneously creating a more secure domestic market for its raw materials which could then be more heavily relied upon.

With all this in mind it is easy to see why it is important not to develop a reliance on imported fuels. Producing biofuels within the UK would lessen this dependance and improve diversity of supply.